Event Deck — Risk Profiles per Expansion
The Event deck is introduced by Branch & Claw and expanded by Jagged Earth and Nature Incarnate. Each turn starting T1 (in games using the Event deck), an Event card is drawn and resolved in order of its stages (usually 1-3; some cards go to 5).
Pool size + per-game draws
| Combo | Event pool | Events per 8-round game (mean) |
|---|---|---|
| Base only (Horizons + Base game) | 0 | 0.0 |
| Base + B&C | 23 | 8.0 |
| Base + JE | 30 | 8.0 |
| Base + B&C + JE | 53 | 8.0 |
| All expansions (Base + B&C + JE + NI + Promos) | 62 | 8.0 |
| NI additions only (delta from JE) | 9 | 8.0 |
Spirit-favoring vs. Invader-favoring hits
Heuristic regex classifier counting pro-spirit vs. pro-invader phrasing in each Event card’s full multi-stage text.
| Combo | Pool | Spirit-favor total | Invader-favor total | Net favor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base + B&C | 23 | 19 | 17 | +2 |
| Base + JE | 30 | 38 | 22 | +16 |
| Base + B&C + JE | 53 | 57 | 39 | +18 |
| All expansions (Base + B&C + JE + NI + Promos) | 62 | 68 | 43 | +25 |
| NI additions only (delta from JE) | 9 | 11 | 4 | +7 |
Top 5 spirit-favoring + invader-favoring events (all expansions)
Most spirit-favoring
- Dahan Trade with the Invaders (Jagged Earth) — spirit-hits 3, invader-hits 0 (net +3)
- Numinous Crisis (Jagged Earth) — spirit-hits 3, invader-hits 0 (net +3)
- The Struggles of Growth (Jagged Earth) — spirit-hits 4, invader-hits 1 (net +3)
- Far-off Wars Touch the Island (Nature Incarnate) — spirit-hits 2, invader-hits 0 (net +2)
- Harvest Bounty, Harvest Dust (Jagged Earth) — spirit-hits 3, invader-hits 1 (net +2)
Most invader-favoring
- Farmers Seek the Dahan for Aid (Branch and Claw) — spirit-hits 0, invader-hits 2 (net -2)
- Wounded Lands Attract Explorers (Jagged Earth) — spirit-hits 0, invader-hits 1 (net -1)
- Tight-Knit Communities (Branch and Claw) — spirit-hits 0, invader-hits 1 (net -1)
- Thriving Trade (Jagged Earth) — spirit-hits 1, invader-hits 2 (net -1)
- Resourceful Populace (Jagged Earth) — spirit-hits 0, invader-hits 1 (net -1)
Interpretation
- B&C events are the most balanced (+1.09 per-game net favor in simulation).
- JE events skew pro-spirit (+4.87), driven by the larger pool with more Fear-generating cards.
- NI events as a standalone pool skew even more pro-spirit, but when mixed with the full pool, the combined net is +3.65 — JE’s positive balance remains visible.