Major vs. Minor Draft Rates
Most spirit chapters rate a preferred draft bias: Minor-heavy, Major-heavy, or Mixed. Under the hood, that reflects expected value under the spirit’s energy curve, innate element needs, and play-count-per-turn budget. This chapter extracts the drivers.
The arithmetic
Drafting a Major: 3-card-view-pick-1, costs ≥3 Energy to play, gates on elemental threshold. Drafting a Minor: 4-card-view-pick-1 (or 2-pick-1 per growth), costs 0-2 Energy, no elemental gate.
EV per draft:
- Major: P(useful Major in view) × E(payoff | played within 3 turns)
- Minor: P(useful Minor in view) × E(payoff) — typically higher P(hit), lower E(payoff).
Low-income spirits (most base-complexity) struggle to play Majors fast enough to amortize the draft opportunity cost. Minor-heavy wins for them.
High-income spirits (Stone’s Unyielding Defiance, Starlight, Serpent) or energy-banking growths (Shadows G3, Ocean G3) can afford 3-6E Majors and have the CP to play them alongside cheap Minors.
Draft bias by archetype
| Archetype | Typical income | Typical CP | Draft bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fear-rush low-complexity | 1-2E | 1-2 | Minor-heavy |
| Fear-rush + presence (Shadows) | 1-3E | 1-2 | Mixed (Minor T1-3, 1 Major T5+) |
| Damage specialist (Lightning, Heart) | 1-3E | 2-3 | Minor-heavy early, Major T4+ |
| Energy-bank late-ramp (Starlight, Stone) | 2-5E | 2-3 | Major-heavy |
| Dahan-coordinator (Thunderspeaker, Hearth-Vigil) | 1-2E | 1-2 | Minor-heavy |
| Control/presence (Serpent, Lure) | 2-4E | 2-3 | Mixed |
| Complex late-game (Fractured Days, Wandering Voice) | 2-4E | 2-3 | Major-heavy |
Pool-dilution effect
Per Expansion Dilution Claims:
- Base Major pool mean: 1.05 fear/card
- B&C Majors: 2.00 (peak)
- JE Majors: 1.04
- NI Majors: 0.83 (lowest)
Implication: more expansions → less raw Fear per average Major draft. This partially compensates the Minor pool expansion (B&C Minors 0.67 vs. base 0.58).
So all-expansions games have a subtly different Minor-vs-Major balance than base-only. In base, Major drafts are more rewarding on average. In all-expansions, Minor advantage grows.
When Minor-heavy wins decisively
- Innate depends on specific-element Minors you cheaply chain.
- Energy income caps at 2-3E through mid-game.
- Adversary rewards board-positioning over damage (England early, Sweden, Russia).
When Major-shopping wins decisively
- Innate doesn’t need much elemental help (Bringer — only Moon).
- Adversary has escalation cliffs you pre-empt with a single big play (France L5 plantation removal; Mining L5 scaling).
- You have 4-5E regular income by T5.
Gain-1-Major growth option?
Starlight, Fractured Days, Lure of the Deep Wilderness have growths that gain a Major. Taking one costs:
- 1 presence not placed
- 1 CP slot on a card you may not afford for 2-3 more turns
It’s correct when the Major carries a game-phase AND your expected income crosses the Major’s cost within 2 turns of drafting.
See also
- Deck Expansion Impact — pool sizes per combo.
- Fear Card Expected Value — Fear-output calibration.
- Card Draft Theory — fundamentals-level treatment.
- Each spirit chapter’s Card Priority Ratings — full-pool picks.