Reading mindwanderer

mindwanderer aggregates player-reported Spirit Island game outcomes into win-rate tables per (spirit × adversary × level × player-count). It’s the best public signal for relative spirit strength — but it’s not ground truth, and reading it well takes a few heuristics.

What it actually is

Self-reported: players submit after their game. Selection bias is real.
Cross-table: digital (Steam + Asmodee Online) + tabletop, blended.
Skill-heterogeneous: a player’s 1st Shadows game and their 50th are both in the denominator.

When you see Shadows vs. England L6: 52% (n=180), treat that as: “Across a self-selected mix of players, the true underlying win-rate is probably in (44%, 60%) at 95% confidence.”

The Wilson 95% CI

Win-rate without a CI is just a point estimate. With n=180 and p=0.52 the Wilson 95% interval is approximately (44.6%, 59.1%). At n=25 that same 52% point estimate broadens to roughly (33%, 71%) — a much weaker claim.

Mental shortcut:

n < 20: “we don’t know.” Treat as a rumor.
n = 20–100: directional but weak. Don’t rank-order by 2-3% gaps.
n > 100: gap-meaningful at 5-10% level.
n > 500: gap-meaningful at 2-3% level.

Comparing two spirits

Don’t subtract point estimates. Compute each’s Wilson CI; if intervals overlap, you can’t confidently say one is stronger.

Example: Shadows 52% (n=180) vs. River 48% (n=95):

Shadows: (44.6%, 59.1%)
River: (38.1%, 58.0%)

Intervals overlap heavily → “maybe Shadows is stronger but it’s within error bars.”

Compare: Bringer 61% (n=220) vs. Thunderspeaker 47% (n=200):

Bringer: (54.4%, 67.2%)
Thunderspeaker: (40.2%, 54.0%)

Overlap is tiny → Bringer is plausibly stronger (narrow margin, still reasonable doubt).

What mindwanderer doesn’t capture

Scenario effects: most reports are no-scenario; scenario stats are typically too thin.
Expansion mix: base+JE and base+B&C+JE+NI often go in the same bucket. Expansion-column data is approximate.
Player-count interaction: 2-handed solo ≠ true 2-player. Filter by player count.
Adversary-within-level variation: L3 England ≠ L3 Scotland. Blended top-lines lose this.

Workflow

Pick the spirit × adversary combo.
Filter mindwanderer to your player count.
Read the point estimate + n. Compute Wilson bounds (or eyeball: CI width ≈ 1/√n).
Compare against the closest alternative spirit via overlapping-intervals test.
Cross-reference Expansion Dilution Claims for how your expansion mix shifts the baseline.

When to ignore mindwanderer entirely

You’ve played <10 games total — the community’s average skill is above yours. Their win rates overstate what you’ll experience.
You’re doing a specific scenario or aspect — data is thin. Use the spirit chapter’s hand-authored analysis instead.
You’re playing for learning — highest win rate ≠ most learning-value. A 5%-below-mean spirit can teach more if it’s a different archetype than your comfort pick.

Spirit Island Mastery